Staff Writer

May 23, 2023 – It’s about get even hotter as the UN agency says scientists have warned that the world may experience rising temperatures above the 1.5 Celsius threshold, due to El Niño and human induced climate breakdown, which could have serious consequences putting us into uncharted territory, even though it was initially predicted that the chances of temperature rise above the 1.5C was zero.

This would be failing to keep the promise made by countries in 2015 under the Paris Climate Agreement to keep global temperatures lower than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (1850 to 1900), following advice from scientists that warming beyond the superior level could be catastrophic resulting in irremediable outcomes.

The report published on Wednesday, May 17th, 2023, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), highlighted that there is a 66 percent chance of exceeding the 1.5 Celsius mark at least one year between 2023 and 2027.

However, according to Professor Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of WMO, the rise in temperature will not be permanent.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5C specified in the Paris agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

Climate breakdown from human activity and the development of the El Niño weather system, as La Niña ends, creates heat waves across the globe.

The La Niña phase, which the world was in for the past three years, had diminished high temperatures around the world.  Now with El Niño, which is expected to develop in the coming months, there is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest ever recorded, scientists say.

It is predicted that each year from 2023 to 2027, the global near-surface temperature will be between 1.1C and 1.8C, above the highlighted pre-industrial levels.

Despite the fact that this rise in temperature is said to be temporary, the effects should not be taken lightly, especially since the world is already seeing negative impacts of warming.

Rising temperatures can lead to serious outcomes, such as death by heatwaves, which from 2016 to 2021, were above the five-year average in every heat-period, with a total of 12,598 excess deaths (9.3% above average, 119 average excess deaths per day; longer droughts; wildfires; shrinking of glaciers and ice sheets; wind intensity and rainfall from tropical cyclones, as well as other serious effects.

Additionally, there will likely be less rainfall in the Amazon, Central America, Australia and Indonesia, according to the report.

For the Amazon, this poses a threat to the region’s rainforest which is what it’s known for. Scientists fear the warming and human deforestation could destroy the region, turning it into more of a savanna.

November of this year will see the meeting of   governments for the Cop28 UN climate summit, where progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris agreement will be examined. The “global stock take”, as the assessment is called, will likely highlight that the world is not close to  reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the stipulated  43 percent this decade that is required to have a good chance of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C.

Staff Writer 

April 13, 2023 – As the June 1 start of the Atlantic Hurricane season nears, the names that will be used for the storms this season are making the rounds.  The names are agreed upon by the World Meteorological Organization.

Six lists of names are used in rotation every six years, and the lists which have been in use for the last 60 years are only altered when a name is removed.  Hurricane names are removed or retired when the storm associated with them is so destructive that it would be inappropriate to reuse and is done away with out of sensitivity.

Retired from the 2022 roster are Fiona and Ian, hurricanes which wrought extreme destruction across Canada, the United States, and the Caribbean including the Turks and Caicos Islands, though the country was spared any major damage.  That roster of names beginning with Alex and Bonnie  and Ending with Virginie and Walter, will be reused in 2028 (sans Fiona and Ian of course).

For 2023, the names are Arlene; Bret; Cindy; Don; Emily; Franklin; Gert; Harold; Idalia; Jose; Katia; Lee; Margot; Nigel; Ophelia; Philippe; Rina; Sean; Tammy; Vince; and Whitney.

This roster of names was last used in 2017, and due to the incredible damage and loss of lives they caused, Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate were retired from the list.  The storms decimated parts of the Caribbean including the Turks and Caicos and Costa Rica and was blamed for the deaths of more than 3,000 people.

AccuWeather has forecast, the 2023 season to be average in terms of storm frequency but residents are still urged to prepare.

Staff Writer

#Barbados, February 11, 2023 – United Nations and Caribbean Leaders gathered in Bridgetown, Barbados on Wednesday to launch the region’s first initiative that will ensure the global implementation of early disaster warning systems by 2027.

The Early Warnings for All initiative (EW4ALL) comes as climate hazards become gradually worse.

It was the world’s first regional launch of the Early Warnings For All Initiative has taken place in Barbados led by Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley, who spoke with conviction about the disasters faced by her region and by nations around the world.

“We speak this morning in Barbados, but we extend deepest sympathy on behalf of all of us to the people of Türkiye and Syria,” she said, adding, “Even when you provide the warnings, if you do not have partnerships, if you do not have the reinforcing community education, if you don’t have the plans that cause people to know that you are serious, the warnings will on deaf ears.”

The initiative will call on support in the areas of observations and forecasting, disaster risk knowledge, communication of early warnings, and preparedness and response.  Priority will be placed on countries that are most vulnerable.

With the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) at the helm of this project, a target investment of $3.1 billion is anticipated.

“The Region has been bearing the brunt of global warming and therefore, it is no surprise that our Heads of Government have provided leadership for initiating the implementation of this plan in the Caribbean,” said CARICOM Secretary General, Dr. Carla Barnett.

Staff Writer

#TurksandCaicos, September 2, 2022 – For the first time ever the Turks and Caicos Islands has weather updates from a department of its own.

History was made with the launching of the Turks and Caicos’ Department of Meteorology recently, and Director of Meteorology at the TCI Airports Authority Dr. Holly Hamilton spoke to Magnetic Media about the newly minted two-man team, and how the Turks and Caicos will benefit because of it.

“We are a very small team, but we are active. Currently, we mostly provide meteorological services to the aviation sector since we are an aeronautical meteorological office, however, we provide some meteorological information to the public and DDME for early warning purposes.”

One of those early warnings was issued early this week as a tropical disturbance makes its way closer to the Turks and Caicos.  Hamilton said that recent advisory is an example of the type of information and collaboration the public can expect from the Met Department and the Department of Disaster Management & Emergencies (DDME) going forward.

“We wanted to make the public aware that there was a tropical disturbance out there that could potentially pose a threat to the TCI, and that the responsible agencies were monitoring the situation. It is all about Early Warning and Early Action.”

The team utilizes automatic weather stations installed at some of the airports and weather stations that the DDME has installed throughout the country to make their predictions.

“We have been issuing 3-day Public Forecasts on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays for about a month now” she said

These public forecasts can be accessed on all the DDMEs social media platforms and the DDME Alert App.  The work of the Met Department will continue beyond the hurricane season with these forecasts”, Hamilton says.  Additionally, more localized information specific to the TCI will be shared, especially in the event that a tropical cyclone is threatening the islands with major input from Hamilton herself.

“As a tropical meteorologist, I now bring my knowledge of and experience with these tropical systems to the table.  The tropical cyclone warning and advisories will still be issued by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology (an arrangement made by the WMO).  However, as the Director of Meteorology, I will be involved in the decision-making process on the tropical cyclone advisories for the TCI.”

In terms of growth, Hamilton and INSERT will soon be joined by a meteorological assistant, and the long-term vision she says, is for the Department to grow into a National Weather Service with more automatic weather stations to build the weather observation network in the TCI.

The government is now in the process of developing a National Strategic Plan for meteorological services and Framework for Weather, Water and Climate Services in the Turks and Caicos Islands, with the assistance of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO).

In order to grow though, Hamilton said that they will need human capital and the Met Department will be looking to recruit persons for training soon to help build its ranks .

“Any young person who has interests in weather and climate can reach out to me and we can discuss how you can become the next Meteorological Observer, Forecaster, or Meteorologist in the TCI.”

You can contact Dr. Holly at hollyhamilton@tciairports.com