Staff Writer 

May 5, 2023 – ‘A Category 5 is on the way.’ It’s a statement that would cause immediate concern in even the youngest of residents in the Atlantic Basin; so ingrained is the Saffir-Simpson scale in our understanding of hurricanes, but some say with the effects of climate change at our door it’s time for a change.

The Saffir-Simpson scale is the internationally accepted method of grading the intensity/strength of hurricanes created in 1973. The scale uses wind speed to grade the strength of hurricanes, a classification some say is outdated because it excludes other deadly factors and characteristics of horrible storms.

The only change that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has made in over a decade is a slight change in the wind speed of categories three, four, and five to remedy mix-ups when converting the wind speeds to miles or kilometres per hour.

Citing storm surges (which cause flooding and drowning deaths), rain, the discrepancy between hurricane wind speed at sea and on land, the sea level pressure of storms and other factors, scientists say it’s time to upgrade the way we think about the storms and their intensity.

Phil Klotzbach, Meteorologist at Colorado State University in his research on storms in the US says, pressure is more skillful than wind at predicting normalised hurricane damage and intensity while simultaneously being easier to measure.

Pressure is partially responsible for storm surge.

Rain and Storm surge are important factors for low lying island nations, especially those bisected by water like the Turks and Caicos and The Bahamas.  A high enough storm surge or enough flooding can be deadly, cutting off evacuation routes before storms and emergency personnel after; trapping people in their homes or pulling them out to sea.

NOAA lists storm surge as the factor that causes the most deaths in hurricanes, but the Saffir-Simpson Scale does not currently measure this.

In 2018, two writers for Yale School of the Environment Rob Young and Katie Mcdowell Peek agreed that wind alone was not enough to focus on as a predictor of hurricane strength. They cite hurricanes Florence (cat 1), Katrina (cat 3), and Harvey (cat 4), and Tropical Storm Sandy, devastating storms in the US with high death tolls driven not by wind but by the dozens of inches of rainfall and massive storm surges they brought.

“All of these storms have one thing in common: The hazards they unleashed were not adequately described by the traditional hurricane classification system,” they argue.

These researchers outright call for the Saffir-Simpson Scale to be done away with and a new system created.

This is not to say that wind has no bearing on a hurricane’s ferocity or that it is to be overlooked; rather the researchers say it should take a backseat to other risk factors. Under Klotzbach’s system pressure would be the defining factor for categorising hurricanes rather than wind speed.

“The real danger from all of these systems is water, not wind— water can completely reconfigure a barrier island shoreline by opening new inlets, knocking down dunes, and pushing entire islands landward. The impact of wind can’t compare,” Young and Peak argue.

It is especially important to consider and broadcast this information when talking about hurricanes, they say, as ocean temperatures rise, ice caps melt and sea levels get higher.

Editorial Staff 

#TurksandCaicos, April 26, 2023 – The possible arrival of weather system El Nino has prompted several early forecasts from AccuWeather and others predicting a less active Atlantic Hurricane season than usual but Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Centre in a recent visit to the Turks and Caicos urged residents to ignore news surrounding El Nino.

“I want you all to ignore the headlines of El Nino and don’t fall in the trap– I can assure you hurricanes can and will form during El Nino years and will [do so] this season. We don’t know yet where they will go and who they will threaten but El Nino will not stop them from threatening communities ,” he said.

Rhone was speaking at the April 21st visit by the US National Hurricane Centre (NHS) Hurricane Hunter Aircraft and its team. The Hurricane Hunters who are from the NHS, the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Association and US Air Force Reserve, were back in the Turks and Caicos; they’d visited in 2017.

Rhone maintained the visit was a major investment and a purposeful one as well.

“That’s a big plane, it consumes a lot of fuel and there’s 23 personnel on board. That’s a big investment— what is it we’re trying to say by bringing it here? It’s a strong strong message that hurricanes are a big risk to this community and to your country,” he said.

Using Fiona as an example, the Deputy Director explained that storms were no longer allowing countries in their trajectory days of warning to prepare, rather they were intensifying rapidly and sometimes overnight.

“Increasingly how hurricanes manifest themselves is through this sudden quick intensification leaving people a day to prepare, sometimes even less. No longer can we wait for the storm to approach to prepare,” he warned, emphasizing preparation at the beginning of the season which begins on June 1.

While encouraging prior preparation, the deputy director provided insight to a problem that may go unnoticed, deaths of the elderly in the aftermath.

“I especially want you to think about the elderly, we’re seeing an increase in loss of life after storms due to the loss of power and the oppressive heat that often comes after these events.”

Residents and policy makers were admonished to think about things like this that were ‘beyond the immediate’ like stocking up on medication.

Dr. Holly Hamilton who heads the Meteorological Service in the Turks and Caicos led the event thanking the team for their service.

“It is an essential tool when it comes to Hurricane forecasting and tracking, the people on that plane risk their lives to go in and retrieve very important data that we use to predict and protect your lives,” she explained.

Anya Williams, Acting Governor assured the country that the country’s respective authorities were already preparing.

“We know that the hurricane season is from June to November but it’s important that we are prepared.  Earlier this week we had our first state of preparedness meeting with all ministries and departments to ensure that the government in the Turks and Caicos is as prepared as possible.”

That extends to the population as well, Williams maintained:  “No matter how prepared the government is, we are only properly prepared as our people are.”

E Jay Saunders, Deputy Premier and Finance Minister thanked the NOAA team, expressing his personal delight at the visit of the aircraft, commending the value of collaboration.

“I would like to emphasize the importance of working together in the face of adversity as Hellen Keller put it. It is through our collective efforts that we can make a difference,” he reminded. “Today we can make a significant impact in building a more secure and resilient Caribbean and Turks and Caicos Islands.”

He expressed his excitement to see the ‘incredible technology and dedication” that made the flights into hurricanes, which provide lifesaving information to the Turks and Caicos and the entire Caribbean, possible.

Arlington Musgrove, Minister of Immigration and Border Services emphasized preparation as well expressing his gratitude to the NOAA team.

“I appreciate you guys coming in and sharing your expertise with us, so let’s get all of their knowledge and then let’s share it with each other,” he offered as officials, students and other hurricane season stakeholders eagerly awaited the opportunity to see the parked aircraft up close.

Rhodes had one last request:  “I want you to walk away from the event with a newfound commitment to ready yourselves and your community for June 1.”

The aircraft was hosted at the Provo Air Center, near the Providenciales International Airport by the TCI Airports Authority.  A succinct welcome ceremony and expo were also staged to mark the visit which also included stops in Mexico, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

Staff Writer

#TurksandCaicos, April 21, 2023 – Some fortunate students from the TCI, along with government officials and members of the media, will get to see and speak with crew members of a Hurricane Hunter aircraft this Friday, April 21 when they make a stop into the Turks and Caicos Islands as part of their Caribbean Tour.  Last visit was six years ago.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are very important as they are flown directly into the eye of a storm to collect crucial data forecasting a hurricane’s intensity and landfall.  One report said, a typical weather reconnaissance mission lasts about 11 hours, covering almost 3,500 miles collecting and reporting weather data as often as every minute.  The aircraft penetrates hurricanes at an altitude of about 10,000 feet to collect data which contributes to the accuracy of hurricane predictions.

The tour will stop into the Provo Air Center at Old Airport Road.  It is part of a Hurricane Awareness Tour in Mexico and the Caribbean which is engineered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Air Force Reserve.

The TCI leg of the expedition is being facilitated by the Turks and Caicos Islands Airports Authority (TCIAA).

The other Caribbean countries in the adventurous itinerary are the Cayman Islands, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

These tours are welcoming as we are just mere weeks from June 1, which is the official start of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season.

So far, Colorado State University in the US has predicted a “Slightly Below Average” for the 2023 Hurricane Season, with 13 named storms, six of which, they say, will become hurricanes.

Staff Writer 

#USA, March 13, 2023 – California residents are facing their tenth atmospheric river in three months and already a river has burst its banks sending 8, 000 scrambling out of their homes to safety. But as the sunny West Coast state floods and floods, 84 percent of it is classified as being under drought conditions.

Extended periods of drought damage microbes in the soil that break down organic matter,  layers of organic matter can then become like a waxy film on top of soil, this can in turn make the solid hydrophobic or water repellent.

The Department of Agriculture and Food in Australia (which deals with drought regularly) says water repellency results in poor water infiltration, variable soil wetting, increased erosion risk and reduced and delayed crop, pasture and weed establishment.

This means among other consequences, instead of seeping into parched earth quickly, the water takes much longer to penetrate,  and heavy rain can induce severe flooding. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says much like a river is water moving over land, an atmospheric river is a stream of water vapor moving in the sky. When that unleashes it can cause flooding. Even more so when the area has been in a months-long drought like California.

In addition between the first nine atmospheric rivers which happened in January and December there has been very little precipitation, the majority of rain coming in these heavy extreme bursts that are often deadly

This isn’t to say the rain hasn’t helped. The atmospheric rivers have pushed the state out of extreme drought into atmospheric and moderate drought stages which are slightly better. So far at least two people have died in the March rains and 20 were killed in January. Currently more that 50,000 people are without power.

Staff Writer

December 1, 2022 – The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season has come to an end after 14 named storms. Two of these developed into major hurricanes, Hurricanes Fiona and Ian.  Still the death toll was over 300 and damage costs are nearing $55 billion.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) described the Season as one of the most unique. The pause in storms that occurred during the season was a rare occurrence that scientists believe was due to lowered atmospheric moisture and increased wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean.

“The 2022 seasonal activity fell within NOAA’s predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes in both our pre-season outlook and updated outlook,” said the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, Matthew Rosencrans.

Hurricane Irma grew from a tropical wave rapidly and on August 30^th became a tropical storm as the ninth named system for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Irma’s winds peaked, says some reports, to 180 mph; far surpassing the 157mph needed to be classified as category five on the Saffir Simpson wind scale.  

It is estimated that over two dozen countries and counties were impacted by the ferocity of Hurricane Irma; some 134 people were killed and damages were recorded at nearly $65 billion.

In the Turks and Caicos, 80% of buildings nationwide were damaged, including 80% of structures on the most populated island of Providenciales.

Cost of damage for the TCI alone was put at over half a billion dollars.

A more well-defined low pressure system is forecast to form between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands later today after the tropical wave moves offshore over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, and the low is likely to become a Tropical Depression by the weekend while moving westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

This system is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday, and interests on the islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

LOCATION…44.5N 43.1W

ABOUT 945 MI…1525 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

Tropical Storm Debby is with stronger winds today than when she formed on Tuesday and was forecast, at that time to be a short-lived sub-tropical system, with no effect on any land mass.

There remains no coastal watches or warnings in effect for the storm, which has winds at 45mph and which is moving rapidly to the north-east at 17pm.

“At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 43.1 West.  Debby is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is expected to accelerate northeastward through the day today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Debby will likely dissipate later today or tonight.”  

It was also explained in the NHC update that tropical storm force winds are outward up to 105 miles and estimated central pressure is at 1002mb.

Tropical Storm Debby formed near Boston and is nearest to St. John’s Canada, according to current models.  The storm is expected to stay well east of these areas, but ‘seas will kick up’ for a brief period explained an AccuWeather report on the system.

The next complete advisory on Tropical Storm Debby  is at 500 PM AST.

In that media release, it was made clear that the tens of millions in value our coral reefs and other natural habitats bring to the number one industry, tourism is not counting the definite value the ecosystems bring through coastal protection, local recreation and fisheries.    Another reality to which the Ministry was awakened by Wolfs Company, was how much should actually be invested when it comes to managing and protecting these natural resources.

It was explained that at least 1.8% of tourism related revenues should go to agencies like #DECR; which equates to about $1.1m each fiscal year.  Director at DECR, Ethan Griesbach shared:  “A relatively small incremental investment in the financing of the organizations responsible for the natural resources of TCI would contribute significantly to improve the management and protection of essential natural capital.  DECR would encourage further use of Natural capital valuation by TCIG to further demonstrate the value of nature to TCI’s economy in planning and development strategies for TCI.”

The meetings, which had the key findings from 2015-2016 research presented revealed also that our coral reef cover in some areas is decreasing, while there are some strides which have most likely come from a ban on fishing of the Parrot Fish.    To be sure though, the recently installed Director at DECR agrees that assessment of the general the health of the coral reefs will demand a new baseline survey of all the sites assessed back in 1999.

Other notables from the meeting, which was supported by the Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), were suggestions to improve the long-term financing for monitoring and nature management in Turks and Caicos, including potential sources of revenue and legal mechanisms to guarantee that these funds will be only used for nature management.

#MagneticMediaNews